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Pork—Swine flu could lift Australian pork exports

African swine flu has spread throughout the EU and now hit China, threatening the world’s largest producer and per capita consumer of pork. The virus has no vaccine, with swine mortality rates close to 100%. Pork prices in China have been on the rise since May 2018, following a correction in prices through 2017 (Chart). A virus-induced shortage could force pork prices even higher and boost demand for imported pork. Spain, Germany, Canada and the US accounted for 64% of Chinese pork imports in 2017. But with the EU also affected by the virus and the current US-China trade impasse, Australian pork producers could see a lift in exports. China currently accounts for 1% of Australian pork exports by value, with Singapore (51%), New Zealand (11%), PNG (11%) and Hong Kong (10%) the major markets.

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