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Upside opportunities to the 2019 export outlook

Upside opportunities Description of scenario Probability of event Impact on Australian exporters
Commodity prices outperform expectations   Commodity prices are forecast to come off their 2017/2018 highs. But under this scenario stronger than expected global growth leads to sustained demand for Australia’s key commodities, keeping iron ore and coal prices at around 2018 levels.  Moderate High

Acceleration in reform momentum across emerging Asian economies

The World Bank’s ease of doing business scores for most of Australia’s key Asian EM trading partners have improved over the last two years, a boon for exporters. This scenario assumes governments step up their reform drive. Regulations in China, India and Indonesia are increasingly investor friendly. There is also marked improvement in physical infrastructure, particularly in Indonesia and India. Low High