World Risk Developments December 2018

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World Risk Developments December 2018

In our final bulletin for the year, we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019…

In 2018, the global economy remains on track to match last year’s performance, which was the strongest pace of growth since 2011. In particular, a burst of fiscal stimulus spurred the US economy, while unemployment hit record lows and labour shortages began to emerge in many economies. But the current global economic cycle has passed its zenith—the OECD expects GDP growth to fall to 3.5% p.a. in 2019 and 2020. The recent escalation of restrictive trade measures has slackened trade and investment growth, whilst higher US interest rates and the stronger USD have seen capital outflows accelerate from emerging markets (EMs), and monetary and fiscal stimulus is being gradually withdrawn in advanced economies. Further, rising risks could undermine the projected soft landing. We look at the tidal shifts of 2018 below, then discuss 12 risks that lurk in 2019.

  • 2018—peak expansion
  • 2019—soft landing
  • Australia's export outlook
  • Risks to the 2019 export outlook
  • Upside opportunities to the 2019 export outlook


Cassandra Winzenried, Chief Economist
cwinzenried@efic.gov.au

Fred Gibson, Senior Economist

fgibson@efic.gov.au

 

The views expressed in World Risk Developments are Efic’s. They do not represent the views of the Australian Government. The information in this report is published for general information only and does not comprise advice or a recommendation of any kind.  While Efic endeavours to ensure this information is accurate and current at the time of publication, Efic makes no representation or warranty as to its reliability, accuracy or completeness.  To the maximum extent permitted by law, Efic will not be liable to you or any other person for any loss or damage suffered or incurred by any person arising from any act, or failure to act, on the basis of any information or opinions contained in this report.