World Risk Developments December 2018
In our final bulletin for the year, we look back at 2018 and forward to 2019…
In 2018, the global economy remains on track to match last year’s performance, which was the strongest pace of growth since 2011. In particular, a burst of fiscal stimulus spurred the US economy, while unemployment hit record lows and labour shortages began to emerge in many economies. But the current global economic cycle has passed its zenith—the OECD expects GDP growth to fall to 3.5% p.a. in 2019 and 2020. The recent escalation of restrictive trade measures has slackened trade and investment growth, whilst higher US interest rates and the stronger USD have seen capital outflows accelerate from emerging markets (EMs), and monetary and fiscal stimulus is being gradually withdrawn in advanced economies. Further, rising risks could undermine the projected soft landing. We look at the tidal shifts of 2018 below, then discuss 12 risks that lurk in 2019.
- 2018—peak expansion
- 2019—soft landing
- Australia's export outlook
- Risks to the 2019 export outlook
- Upside opportunities to the 2019 export outlook
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