Economic growth is expected to moderate over the medium term as the economy continues its march towards advanced economy status. GDP growth is forecast to slow to below 6% p.a. by 2022 and decline further to 5% p.a. over 2022-30 as investment-led growth gives way to a more consumer-oriented economy. But large imbalances in the banking sector brought on from excessive lending in the wake of the global financial crisis could start to impede the flow of credit and bring on a proverbial hard landing.
Despite the softer growth trajectory, per capita income will continue to increase rapidly, and exceed US$12,000 by 2022. Since China ranks only 76th in the world for per capita income (up from 116 in 2007), it has considerable scope to grow even richer.