World Risk Developments back issues
2011
World Risk Developments, November 2011
- Crisis escalation puts eurozone at crossroads
- Thai floods disrupt international supply chains
- Rapid growth strains Indonesian infrastructure
- Widening current account deficit leaves Turkey exposed
- Argentine government ignores economic imbalances, imposes capital controls
World Risk Developments, October 2011
- IMF growth downgrade
- Stress-testing European banks
- Sino-US currency dispute
- Falling commodity pricesSino-Burmese dam dispute
- Investors await next moves from Zambia’s new president
- Mongolian government backs off Oyu Tolgoi
- Egypt’s balance of payments feels the strain
- Sri Lankan IMF loan stalls
World Risk Developments, September 2011
- Resource nationalism
- India's supply side challenges
- Rising rice prices
- Emerging market FDI
World Risk Developments, August 2011
- The Age of Austerity: Fiscal problems in industrialised economies may undermine the economic rebound.
- Eurozone: Crisis threatens to drag in Italy and Spain.
- United States: Ratings downgrade highlights medium-term fiscal issues.
- World economy: The ‘soft patch’ continues.
- Asia: How insulated from the troubles in the North Atlantic?
World Risk Developments, July 2011
In this bulletin we look back at the past six months and ahead at the next year. Our base case remains that the world economy gets out of its current soft patch in the second half of 2011, but the downside risk to this outcome have certainly increased:
- Possible shocks from the Eurozone debt crisis
- Squabbles over the US government's debt ceiling
- Overheating Asian economies
World Risk Developments, June 2011
- World economy: The Japanese earthquake and ‘Arab Spring’ are exerting drags on world growth.
- Eurozone: Athens is seeking more emergency funds to stave off default.
- United States: Despite talk about technical sovereign default and 'vigilantes' the bond market remains calm.
- Thailand: The forthcoming general election could deal a political shock to the economy.
- Egypt: A foreign reserve drain has forced the ruling military council to seek financial help.
- Peru: How radical is the new president-elect, Ollanta Humala?
World Risk Developments, May 2011
- Eurozone crisis: The fiscal/banking crisis is escalating again amid growing fears of sovereign debt restructuring in 'peripheral' Europe.
- Commodity prices: The recent price correction is unlikely to herald the end of the commodity supercycle, but at some point there is likely to be a downturn once new supply capacity comes on-line.
- Doha Round: WTO members meeting in Geneva failed to break a stubborn stalemate in the talks, but didn't declare the Round dead either.
- Latin America: Latin America is enjoying an FDI boom centred on natural resources.
- Political risk: Rio Tinto reaches agreement with the Guinea government, Egypt seeks renegotiation of a gas supply contract with Israel, and Venezuela increases windfall profits tax on oil producers.
World Risk Developments, April 2011
- MENA: The so-called Arab Spring has entered a new phase. The regional outlook for business has suddenly grown vastly more uncertain.
- Japan: The quake/tsunami/nuclear disaster doesn't seem to be causing as many supply chain disruptions as feared.
- Eurozone: A decision by Portugal to seek an EU bailout will complicate financing challenges for governments in other highly indebted countries such as Spain, Belgium and Italy.
- Interest rates: Both the European Central Bank and China have hiked their policy rates, well ahead of central banks in the US, Japan and UK, which continue to sit tight.
- Oil prices: The virtual collapse of Libyan production has tightened the oil market and made it prone to further supply shocks, such as a recent strike in Gabon.
- US: An eleventh-hour budget agreement averted a US government shutdown.
World Risk Developments, March 2011
- Japan: Nuclear uncertainty complicates quake damage assessment
- International: Further oil supply disruptions could be hard to manage
- China: Communist Party pursues more balanced growth
- India: Growth reality could fall short of potential
- Turkey: Recovery hits external constraints
- Pakistan: Political violence weakens already fragile state
- Mongolia: Mining boom crowds out other industries
World Risk Developments, February 2011
- International: Strong growth despite sluggish Atlantic economies
- International: Food prices hit new high
- Egypt: Unrest delivers severe economic setback
- Eurozone: Sentiment ebbs and flows, but problems remain
- Vietnam: Overheating brings vulnerability
- Cote d’Ivoire: Political crisis brings first default of 2011
- Bangladesh: Over-ambitious policy causes stock market plunge
2010
World Risk Developments, December 2010
World Risk Developments, November 2010
World Risk Developments, October 2010
World Risk Developments, September 2010
World Risk Developments, August 2010
World Risk Developments, July 2010
World Risk Developments, June 2010
World Risk Developments, May 2010
World Risk Developments, April 2010
World Risk Developments, March 2010
World Risk Developments, February 2010
World Risk Developments, January 2010
2009
World Risk Developments, December 2009
World Risk Developments, November 2009
World Risk Developments, October 2009
World Risk Developments, September 2009
World Risk Developments, August 2009
World Risk Developments, July 2009
World Risk Developments, June 2009
World Risk Developments, May 2009
World Risk Developments, March 2009
World Risk Developments, January 2009
2008
World Risk Developments, December 2008
World Risk Developments, November 2008
World Risk Developments, September 2008
World Risk Developments, August 2008
World Risk Developments, July 2008
World Risk Developments, June 2008
World Risk Developments, April 2008
World Risk Developments, March 2008
World Risk Developments, January 2008